Menu

The Latest Statistics: COVID-19

Putting All Of This Into Perspective

As I have stated before I am trying to find research studies published in reference journals about what we are being told to do regarding our current “Covid-19 Recommendations” and restrictions. We're hearing that we should follow the expert guidelines and to follow the science. I learned early in my career that all of the “experts” don’t necessarily have a full grasp of all aspects of a situation such as the one we are in with the “novel coronavirus” pandemic.

Many people have "seen" our loved ones "locked down" in assisted living and nursing facilities for 4 to 8 months. Many of these patients and families have experienced significant psycho-emotional consequences. Not being able to have physical contact with loved ones has been the cause of a physical and emotional downward spiral. The effects of living in a “viral induced hibernation period."

Many are now also experiencing one of the saddest events. Families that are not permitted to be with their loved ones while they transition from this world and move on. I think we can all appreciate how important those last days or minutes are for both the “transitioner” as well as those they leave behind. This definitely is one of the most unfortunate events of this pandemic.

I certainly understand the reason for these precautions. However, there front-line workers in PPE who are tending to the needs of those dying in these facilities. It seems to me that this protective gear and brief training could be offered to families in this situation. After all, in most of these instances the family is paying enough for the facility and the care. I am sure that the necessary PPE could be provided.

We are however learning many lessons allowing us to initiate new forms of therapy ultimately reducing the mortality rate due to Covid-19 according, to the latest CDC statistics. This reduction in mortality is occurring even while cases reported are rising. Yes, the infections have risen as well as deaths recently, but certainly not to the level that we had seen previously. Many more people are getting Covid-19 and surviving. Hospitalizations have risen recently, but this is the time of the year when seasonal flu, and common cold (also a coronavirus) rise as well. Part of the reason for this is the fact that in many areas of the country, due to colder weather, we are confined inside more than when the weather is warmer.

I looked at the most current CDC statistics of laboratory confirmed cases of Covid-19 who were hospitalized. Here is what we have as of December 19, 2020. Understand that these are “floating statistics”, meaning that they can change.

All of these stats are reported per 100,000 population. For 0-4 year old’s the rate is 27.8/100,000. This equates to 0.000278%. For those aged 5-17 the rate is 16.9/100,000 population. This equates to 0.000169%. This number from a purely statistically standpoint is insignificant. I know that some may think my last statement harsh, but I am looking at these numbers from a statistical standpoint only. Let’s move on to those aged 18-49. Now are numbers begin to jump a little. The rate of confirmed cases hospitalized for this age bracket jumps a little more now to 174.8/100,000. This number is a little higher at 0.001748%. Now we move into the 50-64 aged population. Here is where we see our numbers increase even more. This being a more vulnerable population. For this group we move to a rate of 407/100,000. Now we are at 0.00407%.

Let us now look at the most vulnerable population. That is the case due to the significant co-morbidities, or other illnesses that this population tends to suffer from. This includes the most common condition, diabetes, but also includes such conditions as cardiovascular disease, as well as pulmonary conditions such as emphysema, and COPD. This is the 65 and older age group. The number of confirmed Covid-19 hospitalizations for this group is 811.1/100,000 people. This, the age group which contains the greatest number of hospitalized patients, is 0.008111%, but still statistically less than 1%. Please remember that these numbers are "fluid statistics" and may change.

This leads me to a good segue to my next article which will be about “A Sensible and Compassionate Anti-Covid Strategy”. The article will be based in part on the work of Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of Medicine at Stanford University. He earned both his M.D. and Ph.D. in economics from Stanford where he serves as a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and also at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

I trust that you will ponder the information included here and all of my articles on this subject. I know it is a sensitive issue and can spark almost a visceral/emotional response, but I hope you will keep in mind that I do my best to give you facts, and not just my opinion.